This paper integrates two lines of research: trade in global value chains and embodied emissions into a unified conceptual framework. This allows both value-added and emissions to be systematically traced at the country, sector, and bilateral levels through various production network routes. By...

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor...

We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of globalreal interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes inthe natural real interest rate-i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potentialand constant inflation. An...

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing...

This report discusses the economic impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis across industries, and countries. It also provides estimates of the potential global economic costs of COVID-19, and the GDP growth of different countries. The current draft includes estimates for 30 countries, under...

A universal testing and isolation policy is the most viable way to vanquish a pandemic. Its implementation requires: (i) an epidemiological rather than clinical approach to testing, sacrificing accuracy for scalability, convenience and speed; and (ii) state intervention to ramp up production,...

Using the U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the Pandemic Crisis and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics-'social' (where individuals interact to consume goods), 'teleworkable'...

The paper discusses the socio-economic challenges and their systemic features in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic as in the context of global as individual countries. The significant effect, such as increasing socio-economic uncertainty is analyzed. The research shows that in the...

The main purpose of the study presented in the paper is to reveal some important macroeconomic and cultural features of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study used the methods of system analysis and modeling. Since the source of the crisis was not the economy but the...