This paper constructs an early warning system (EWS) for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to...

Central banks manage over $12 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, influencing global exchange rates and asset prices. However, some of the largest holders of reserves report minimal information about their currency composition, hindering empirical analysis. I describe a Hidden Markov Model to...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the market efficiency on the foreign exchange market since the introduction of the Euro by applying the cointegration analysis to exchange rates. The introduction of the Euro has changed the structure of the global foreign exchange market to the extent...

Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the...

Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the market efficiency on the foreign exchange market since the introduction of the Euro by applying the cointegration analysis to exchange rates. The introduction of the Euro has changed the structure of the global foreign exchange market to the extent...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account speculative positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to the "standard" positions in short-term riskless deposits. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and...

On 12 March 2020, the sharp fell of U.S. crude oil price to 30 dollars was explained by the outspreads of coronavirus pandemic and the OPEC's inability to reach a production quota agreement. We employ the structural VAR model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR...

Currency carry trading presents a widespread trading strategy and refers to the forward premium puzzle. Investors borrow low-yielding currencies with the aim to invest in high-yielding ones in order to benefit from arbitrage opportunities. This implies that a one-to-one relationship does not...