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, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences … about cointegration relationships, price adjustments and relative values. We propose the use of regime-switching models to … address these issues. Our regime switching model uses price data to infer whether pricing is oil-driven (integrated) or gas …
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In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...
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to weather, seasonality, and supply disruptions strengthen the price relationship between these two commodities. When the …
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Recent research has focused on the prevailing relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices. Nowadays, it is well acknowledged that crude oil prices often drive natural gas prices. However, their relationship is unstable over time so that it exhibits regime changes. As a result, crude...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978929