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Prominent numbers, indices and ratios in exchange rate determination and financial crashes : in Economists' models, in the field and in the laboratory
Pope, Robin; Selten, Reinhard; Kube, Sebastian; Hagen, … - 2009
laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and … are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes … model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867227
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Chapter 10. Uncertainty and ambiguity in environmental economics: conceptual issues
Heal, Geoffrey; Millner, Antony - In: Handbook of environmental economics : Volume 4, (pp. 439-468). 2018
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in environmental economics: the field studies interactions between socio-economic and biogeochemical systems and neither is fully understood. So our grasp of their interactions is necessarily limited. We argue that this pervasive uncertainty is best modeled as ambiguity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023893
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What is behind the weakness in global investment?
Leboeuf, Maxime; Fay, Bob - 2016
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422052
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The impact of uncertainty on investment : a meta-analysis
Koetse, Mark J.; Groot, Henri L. F. de; Florax, Raymond … - 2006
In this paper we perform a meta-analysis on empirical estimates of the impact between investment and uncertainty. Since the outcomes of primary studies are largely incomparable with respect to the magnitude of the effect, our analysis focuses on the direction and statistical significance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349194
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Uncertainty in the Analytic Climate Economy
Traeger, Christian P. - 2021
The paper analyzes optimal climate policy under uncertainty. It endows a recent quantitative analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with long-run risk, adapting methods from the asset pricing literature to deal with endogenous climate risk. The model solves in closed-form for general degrees...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222601
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Measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty
Moramarco, Graziano - 2020
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233069
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Measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and cross-country uncertainty spillovers
Moramarco, Graziano - In: Econometrics : open access journal 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-29
We propose an approach for jointly measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and bilateral spillovers of uncertainty between countries using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Over the period 2000Q1-2020Q4, our global index is able to summarize a variety of uncertainty measures, such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281497
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Rules vs. Targets : Climate Treaties Under Uncertainty
Gersbach, Hans; Oberpriller, Quirin - 2012
We demonstrate the advantages of a climate treaty based solely on rules for international permit markets when there is uncertainty about abatement costs and environmental damages. Such a ‘Rules Treaty’ comprises a scaling factor and a refunding rule. Each signatory can freely choose the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014041072
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Information Gaps and Shadow Banking
Judge, Kathryn - 2017
This Article argues that information gaps—pockets of information that are pertinent and knowable but not currently known—are a byproduct of shadow banking and a meaningful source of systemic risk. It lays the foundation for this claim by juxtaposing the regulatory regime governing the shadow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969729
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Green Eggs and Ham : The CISG, Path Dependence, and the Behavioural Economics of Lawyers’ Choices of Law in International Sales Contracts
Spagnolo, Lisa - 2022
market distortion; rational decision making within game theory frameworks under different jurisdictional background …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014192105