This paper develops a structural model for the valuation of sovereign debt in which a sovereign country faces a strategic default decision under the risk of experiencing a banking crisis. The sovereign's default policy is governed by the trade-off between lower debt-servicing expenditures and...

We document a higher bond return volatility around the time of default for bonds included in CDS auctions (especially cheapest-to-deliver bonds) versus those that are not, while controlling for firm fundamentals and bond illiquidity. This finding does not extend to time periods far ahead of...

We develop quantitative methods to support financial product analysis-redesign required by the Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) to achieve financial net-zero and thus carbon net-negative positions. We then apply the CEP analysis-redesign to project finance for power generation across a range...

We distill evidence about the effects of COVID-19 on companies. Stock price reactions to the shock differed greatly across firms, depending on their resilience to social distancing, financial flexibility, and corporate culture. The same characteristics affected the response of firms' sales,...

This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named...

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and...

This article focuses on some of the operational aspects of winding down a bank’s trading book portfolio and discusses the hidden exit costs that can sometimes exist. The article provides a deep dive on valuation principles and exit strategies currently considered by industry practitioners when...

We introduce Climate Change Valuation Adjustment (CCVA) to capture climate change impacts on CVA+FVA that are currently invisible assuming typical market practice. To discuss such impacts on CVA+FVA from changes to instantaneous hazard rates we introduce a flexible and expressive...

This paper presents an analytical and empirical analysis of a parsimonious model framework that accounts for a dependence of bond and bank loan recoveries on systematic risk. We extend the single risk factor model by assuming that the recovery rates also depend on this risk factor and follow a...

Generally, information provision and certification have been identified as the major economic functions of rating agencies. This paper analyzes whether the 'watchlist (rating review) instrument has extended the agencies' role towards a monitoring position, as proposed by Boot, Milbourn, and...