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We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011317457
Using a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we propose measures of both total and directional volatility spillovers. We use our methods to characterize daily volatility spillovers across U.S. stock, bond,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277262
Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224356
This paper analyses the issues raised by EMU for the relationships between the euro area and the international financial system. The depreciation of the euro exchange rate since the beginning of EMU has attracted most attention. The paper argues that none of the conventional explanations is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014123552
The United States (US) extracts a large macroeconomic premium from foreigners: she enjoys higher consumption and GDP growths on average relative to the rest of the world (ROW). This is earned even though the US is relatively insulated against global consumption and GDP risks, challenging a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077659
What determines the composition of international portfolio investments remains an open question in international finance. In this paper, I propose a theory of international portfolio choice where trade networks play a key role. I solve in closed form for the optimal equity and bond portfolio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250279
From the dawn of civilization, the ever-growing sophistication of human society, division of labour, specialization, and comparative advantage rendered trade an indispensable part of any human enterprise. The need for trade begets the need for finance, and as trade becomes globally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967567
This paper attempts to bring the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions from monetary policy literature to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel, weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 – 31 December 2015,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947417
We empirically examine how the global carry trade affects the dynamics of spot exchange rates and interest rates across 13 countries from 2000, through the world financial crisis, until the end of 2011. Our model identifies the weekly carry trade position in each currency by matching data on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012952450
The large economic costs associated with the Global Financial Crisis have generated renewed interest in macroprudential policies and their international coordination. Based on a core-periphery model that emphasizes the role of international financial centers, we study the effects of coordinated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954597