This paper makes the first attempt to estimate the time-varying natural rate jointly with the output gap and trend potential output growth for the world as a whole using a simple unobserved components model broadly following the methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003). We find that...

The extant structural vector autoregression (SVAR) literature typically focuses on one shock at a time when studying the behavior of the exchange rates, which risks confounding the identified shock with the endogenous responses to the unidentified shocks. This paper proposes a novel SVAR...

This study aims to analyze the information effects of US monetary policy on the global financial cycle. By combining external instruments and narrative sign restrictions, we are able to identify monetary policy and central bank information shocks. The results show that a tightening monetary...

The literature remains divided on the impact of governance on migration. This paper aims to contribute to this debate by examining the effect of corruption, along with other governance qualities, on brain drain using data from 130 countries. To address the issue of endogeneity, we utilize a...

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to...