This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...

Buying profitable, undervalued stocks and shorting unprofitable, overvalued stocks yields significant return differentials in North America, Europe, Japan, and Asia. Using data from 1991-2016, we test Greenblatt's (2006) “Magic Formula” (MF) and find that a modified MF which uses gross...

We investigate the dynamics of the relationship between returns and extreme downside risk in different states of the market by combining the framework of Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) with a Markov switching mechanism. We show that the risk-return relationship identified by Bali, Demirtas, and...

We investigate the possibility of completing financial markets in a model with no exogenous probability measure and market imperfections. A necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for such an extension to be possible

This paper examines the annual risks and returns of three disparate, hypothetical merger arbitrage portfolio strategies as an attempt to capture alpha from an in-sample study of 793 global M&A transactions covering the January 2000 thru December 2016 time period. Previously written and...

Political uncertainty drives markets. Among macroeconomic forces, it is one of the fewfactors that systematically affect most assets - hence it qualifies as a state variable in the senseof the ICAPM and should carry a risk premium. We employ static and conditional factormodels using data in...

We analyze the relationship between unemployment rate changes and government bond yields during and after the most recent financial crisis across nine industrialized countries. The study is conducted on a weekly basis and we therefore nowcast unemployment data, which are only available once a...

Financialization of commodity markets has been a broadly discussed topic in recent years. However, its implications for commodity investors have not yet been fully explored. This paper concentrates on the macroeconomic determinants of commodity returns in financialized and non-financialized...

I mathematically derive, economically motivate and empirically confirm a new anomaly in credit markets based on the premise that excessive fear of default leads to an undervaluation and overvaluation of credit and duration risk, respectively. To quantify this anomaly, I introduce a new value...