In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...

Many studies have investigated the predictive contents of the term spreads for future inflation and real activity since the 1990s, which was the time when some countries adopted inflation targeting (IT). As notable as the number of studies are the diversity and heterogeneity of the empirical...

A consensus has recently emerged that a number of variables in addition to the level, slope, and curvature of the term structure can help predict interest rates and excess bond returns. We demonstrate that the statistical tests that have been used to support this conclusion are subject to very...

This paper aims at testing international parity conditions by using non-linear unit root tests advocated by Kapetanios et al. (2003, KSS). Results from the KSS tests based on 17 countries (G7 and 10 Asian countries) overwhelmingly show that the adjustment of real interest rates towards real...