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To confront the challenge that disaster risk is “dark matter” in finance, we construct an objective measure of disaster risk, which is able to predict half of GDP crashes in a sample of 20 advanced economies between 1870 and 2021. Despite this significant predictability, we find no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492349
We analyzed power law (Pareto) distributions of one-minute oil prices through the US Oil Fund (Ticker symbol USO), from January 1 through March 31, 2011. Using the daily power law exponent, α, we determined a critical value which predicted a price trend reversal. This critical value, estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945373
Galvanized by the claims of Greenwood et al. in Bubbles for Fama that “a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio …, people have not come up with ways of identifying bubbles”, we present significant evidence to the contrary of both statements … price growth qualified by LPPLS: (i) bubbles followed by a large drawdown or crash, and (ii) price catch-up followed by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800716
builds up, during the run-up phase of crises and asset price bubbles, and increases when systemic risk materializes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499703
result has been a succession of bubbles and crashes, including the worldwide stock market bubble and great crash of 19 … market bubbles and its ensuing “lost decades”, the emerging markets bubbles and crashes in 1994 and 1997, the LTCM crisis of … 1998, the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, the recent house price bubbles, the financialization bubble via special …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009684129
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. This initiative delves into the mechanisms of asset pricing to learn how to detect when and why bubbles emerge and how … facilitate high-level multi-stakeholder discussions about how consequences of asset bubbles can be limited through innovative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440585
, and there are many papers on this important topic. The relationship between asset price bubbles, particularly in real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133592
Financial crises have been pervasive phenomena throughout history. Bordo et al. (2001) find that their frequency in recent decades has been double that of the Bretton Woods Period (1945-1971) and the Gold Standard Era (1880-1993), comparable only to the Great Depression. Nevertheless, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071064