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This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
Using the model-independent approaches of Trolle and Schwartz (2008) and Kozhan et al (2013), we estimate the Variance Risk Premium and Skew Risk Premium for oil market. After estimation, the contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we try to figure out which variables can describe the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920696
predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference … between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility -- reflects the costs of insuring against currency … volatility fluctuations, and the strategy sells high-insurance-cost currencies and buys low-insurance-cost currencies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035847
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003820565
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003467488
We investigate the pricing of volatility risks in currency markets. First, we show that pricing ability of volatility … risk is concentrated in some of its components. Diffusive volatility dominates jump volatility in pricing carry trade … returns, while jump volatility is important in jointly explaining carry trade and momentum returns. Both short-run and long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012552
advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily accommodates unspanned factors affecting volatility and risk …, volatility, and risk premium dynamics — including when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338764
straddles; second, we estimate the PVR in a Heston (1993) stochastic-volatility model. In both cases, the estimation is … more negative and its term structure is steeper when volatility is high. These findings are inconsistent with calibrations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018005