We document a secular increase in the share of purchases from the private sector in government consumption spending: over time the government purchases relatively more private-sector goods, and relies less on its own production of value added. We build a general equilibrium model in which...

I document that financial crises coincide with the sudden reversal of a long period of low aggregate volatility. I argue that shocks to the volatility of total factor productivity are a source of financial instability, and account for both the building-up of risk and the burst of financial...

Amid the recent commodity price gyrations, policy makers have become increasingly concerned in assessing to what extent oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive...

We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global Financial Cycle, which boosts macroeconomic...

We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global Financial Cycle, which boosts macroeconomic...