Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13 …th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and … volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to …

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural … breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global … forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is …

Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a … substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However …, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, while it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for …

February 2022. The sizeable cross-sectional heterogeneity in inflation is well explained by the differential exposures to a set … additional global factors, revealing that economies with procyclical inflation generally have higher inflation than economies … with countercyclical inflation. Furthermore, the comparisons with cross-sectional asset pricing theory are interesting …

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation … pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging …. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a …

There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural … breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global … forces' are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is …

We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend inflation and the inflation gap … factors can have a sizeable influence on the inflation gap, they play only a marginal role in driving trend inflation. Much of … the influence of global factors in the inflation gap may be reflecting commodity price shocks. Finally, we find that the …

We develop a model to empirically study the influence of global factors in driving trend inflation and the inflation … gap. We apply our model to five established inflation targeters and a group of heterogeneous Asian economies. Our results … suggest that while global factors can have a sizeable influence on the inflation gap, they play only a marginal role in …

We evaluate the ability of several univariate models to predict inflation in a number of countries and at several … DESARIMA models is high in stable inflation countries, for which the RMSPE is around 100 basis points when prediction is made …

The study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and …