Showing 1 - 10 of 30,633
We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012901029
A widely replicated result, using U.S. data, is that dividend-price ratios predict future returns, not future dividend … economy. To further investigate this question, this paper examines the relation between dividend yields, future returns and … dividend growth using current international data. It is found that in some countries, dividend-price ratios predict future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905626
We re-examine dividend growth and return predictability evidence using 165 years of data from the Brussels Stock … Exchange. The conventional wisdom holds that time-varying dividend yield is predominately explained by changes in expected … returns and that expected dividend growth is only weakly forecastable. However, we find robust dividend growth predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897291
We find strong international evidence favoring dividend payout as a salient stock characteristic affecting expected … stock returns. We find that dividend-paying stocks outperform non-payers by 0.54% per month in 44 countries, adjusting for … exposures to global and regional risk factors. The majority of the dividend premium is earned during the ex-dividend months. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236352
This study presents international evidence on the dividend month premium. In the US, Hartzmark and Solomon (2013) find … abnormally high returns during the months when stocks are predicted to pay a dividend. We test for this predicted dividend month … of the anomaly, though the dividend month forecasting rule also plays a role in explaining abnormal returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029370
This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974764
This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625861
This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211113
This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008990625