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of GARCH-X models improves the accuracy of their volatility forecasts for spot and 1-year time-charter tanker freight … of the volatility forecasts drawn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893144
This paper examines the existence of dynamic volatility spillovers within and between the dry-bulk and tanker freight … markets by employing the multivariate DCC-GARCH model and the volatility spillover index developed by Diebold & Yilmaz (2009 … disaggregation of volatility spillovers in total, directional, net and net pair- wise. Results reveal the existence of large time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995247
This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by allowing both a long- and a short-run volatility components in the evolution of … economic fundamentals. With this extension, the new model not only is consistent with the volatility literature that the stock … market is driven by two, rather than one, volatility factors, but also provides significant improvements in fitting various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071174
We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834630
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905452
Using the model-independent approaches of Trolle and Schwartz (2008) and Kozhan et al (2013), we estimate the Variance Risk Premium and Skew Risk Premium for oil market. After estimation, the contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we try to figure out which variables can describe the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920696
depending on the cumulative short-term rate makes them particularly informativeabout interest rate volatility risk. Based on a … joint dataset of bonds and Asian interest rate options, we study the inter-relations between bond and volatility risk … benchmark index (EMBI-Global), and a negative volatility risk premium, consistent with the use of Asian options as insurance in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924537