This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...

The present paper shows empirically that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces economic growth even after controlling for institutions. The institutional variable, the paper controls for, is the measure for institutions...

Economies, societies, and many natural systems evolve and change, sometimes dramatically, so good models and accurate forecasts are vital for policymakers to prepare for and navigate these changes successfully. Yet history is littered with forecasts that went badly wrong, sharply illustrated...

The present paper is part of unpublished book divided into three interrelated manuscripts that analyze the collapse of the Sudan. The theory introduced here is that the regime was built on kleptocratic framework. That enhanced a rapid transformation of the values' system of the country and...

This study is focused on (re)searching an answer to the question: * WHY DOES NOT THE RATIO POVERTY/WELFARE WORK as a dynamically pro-market reform indicator, into the contemporary MARKET and ECONOMY? A two stage answering-approach (as below # and ## paragraphs show) is proposed: # If (a) [simple...

The humankind wisdom is supposed to be a related and open-deeper turning point. An equivalent type of statement may be referred to generosity, creativity, solidarity. Homo Sapiens, as a species, is distinguished clearly from other species by their socio-cultural nature, drawing on a deep inner...