) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights … environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

produces forecasts of US inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on US money growth, Phillips … horizons. Results are robust to alternative measures of inflation …

The study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and … gathering picking up during the recession period. We also find that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross …-country lagged revisions. Therefore, one source of information rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets … price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated …