Modelling and forecasting of asset volatility and covariance is of prime importance in the construction of portfolios. In this paper, we present a generalised multi-factor model that incorporates heteroskedasticity and dependence in the idiosyncratic error terms. We apply this model to...

We study the out-of-sample and post-publication return-predictability of 97 variables that academic studies show to predict cross-sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out-of-sample and 58% lower post-publication. The out-of-sample decline is an upper bound estimate of data...

A five cent $0.05 investment in Bitcoin on July 17, 2010, the first date in which there appears to have been a published value had grown to $7,383.39 on July 18, 2018. While Bitcoin as a currency has existed for less than a decade ̶ it had a very limited liquidity and usage during the first few...

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

This paper provides a critical analysis of the possible methods, data sources and the existing results of the field of 'the economic costs of mass violent conflict' by identifying strengths and weaknesses of the existing literature. The report evaluates content, methods, and data sources of the...

The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of...

We conduct a hierarchical meta-regression analysis to review 87 empirical studies that report 769 estimates for the effects of government size on economic growth. We follow best-practice recommendations for meta-analysis of economics research, and address issues of publication selection bias and...

We conduct a hierarchical meta-regression analysis to review 87 empirical studies that report 769 estimates for the effects of government size on economic growth. We follow best-practice recommendations for meta-analysis of economics research and address issues of publication selection bias and...

This study investigates the price volatility of metals, using the GARCH and GJR models. First we examine the persistence of volatility and the leverage effect across metal markets taking into account the presence of outliers, and second we estimate the effects of oil price shocks on the price...

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of trading in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) market, using weekly data for single-name sovereign CDS from October 2008 to September 2015. We describe the anatomy of the sovereign CDS market, derive a law of motion for gross...