In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to...

Expert forecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple subject-matter experts— is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research in this area has exclusively concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting...

AbstractForecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models—is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting tasks in...