We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater...

We present a model of optimal government policy when policies may exacerbate socio-political instability (SPI). We show that the optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The predictions of...

We present a model of optimal government policy when policy choices may exacerbate socio-political instability (SPI). We show that optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The resulting...

One of the most outstanding accomplishments of the economic science over the last decades is the development of a sound and coherent theory of economic growth. Research in growth theory has demonstrated that significant and systematic increases in well-being are attainable whenever the right...