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, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the possibility that business cycle volatility might increase. Rapid … to unstable international capital flows. At the same time, business cycle volatility in OECD countries seems to have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474806
Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a sparse data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120906
This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170717
The choice of instruments for mitigating economic volatility is a serious consideration for policymakers and important … markets are more effective than conventional economic policies, such as fiscal interventions, in reducing economic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014413996
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. Major … macroeconomic aggregates show non-monotonic volatility patterns with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model … without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of domestic financial frictions makes the volatility patterns flatter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003449265
factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with … estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation in the volatility of the global factor is overwhelming as there are … times in which volatility could be several times larger than its unconditional level (about ten times in the aftermath of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908986
This paper uses a battery of calibrated and estimated structural models to determine the causal drivers of the negative correlation between output and aggregate uncertainty. We find the transmission of uncertainty shocks to output is weak, while aggregate uncertainty endogenously responds to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219154
Empirical studies showed that firm-level volatility has been increasing but the aggregate volatility has been … financial development leads to a larger firm-level volatility but a lower aggregate volatility. In addition, our model is also … consistent with the observed decline in volatility of private held firms which do not have (or have only limited) access to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208300
This work summarizes recent advances in modelling and econometrics for alternative directions in macroeconomics and cycle theories. Starting from the definition of a cycle and continuing with a historical overview, some basic nonlinear models of the business cycle are introduced. Furthermore,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357406