This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central...

Using an econometric shift-share decomposition, we explain the redistribution of world market shares at the level of the product variety and by technological content. We decompose changes in market shares into structural effects (geographical and sectoral) and a pure performance effect. We...

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast two basic scenarios: an exit that re-sets the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”), versus...

In this paper I quantify the welfare gains of the 2004 EU enlargement as a result of the abolition of border controls, both for incumbents and for new members. I build a multi-sector Ricardian model, allowing for linkages across sectors, similar to the one in Caliendro and Parro (2011). As with...

The integration of developing countries into the world trading system is an important development mechanism to reduce poverty in these countries. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have recently spread in terms of quantity and type. Some of these, like the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs)...

We develop a novel two-stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different...

This paper compares the traditional gravity model with a bidirectional approach when multilateral resistance is implemented to analyze the effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports. We use cross-sectional HS trade data disaggregated at a 6-digit level in 2010 with controls for...

After a long impasse, Mercosur and the European Union are once again negotiating to reach a Free Trade Agreement. The benefits from such a trade liberalization would be significant since these are essentially complementary economic regions. An agreement would also end decades of costly trade...

This paper assesses the role of a larger degree of common language use between the populations of two countries on the so-called extensive product margin of trade. We focus on the overlap of products exported or imported between any pair of countries. The results suggest that the effect of...