We propose a global expected business cycle condition factor (GEBC) relying on OECD leading economic indicators of 18 stock markets through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach, and show that this index is a powerful predictor for stock returns around the globe both in- and out-of-sample....

Under the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs), the United States (US) and China have ambitious environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment plans. However, dichotomy is found in the literature about how rising ESG practices affect firm value (FV). This study examines the linear and...

This paper constructs a global anomaly index based on the 153 long-short portfolio returns of 33 stock markets. We find that global anomaly index is a strong negative predictor of future aggregate stock returns in international markets both in- and out-of-sample. It captures the common change in...

We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts high future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S....

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...

This paper compares the explanations and predictabilities of 35 firm-level characteristics between developed and emerging stock markets using instrumented principal components analysis (IPCA). In contrast to the weak performance of global model in each region, the local model performs better...