This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008-09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earning call transcripts and a structural...

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were...

The consequences of the ongoing 2020 coronavirus pandemic are leaving deep marks on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, global production sank by 15.5 percent over the course of the worldwide lockdown. Since containment measures in many countries were mainly implemented during the...

The world economy continues on its upward growth path, with global production expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year and slightly more than that in 2018. The economies in both the developed and the emerging countries are gaining momentum. Solid output growth is expected for the U.S. and euro...

Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic...

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the...

The global economy is expected to grow by four percent annually over the next two years. This is a slight increase in the German Institute for Economic Research forecast in comparison to that of the fall. The upswing will gain momentum in both developed and emerging economies. Private...

After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course...

The current global economic environment remains harsh. Global growth rates stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2018, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. Positive stimuli are expected...

The global economy recovered more quickly than expected in the third quarter of 2020. Following the coronavirus-related slumps, economic output increased by seven percent. A decrease in infection rates and thus an easing of containment measures contributed to re-normalizing production processes...