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We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …
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-war announcements caused large declines in U.S. stock prices, expected TFP, and expected inflation largely by moving macro variables …
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Macro announcements change the equilibrium riskfree rate. We find that treasury prices reflect part of the impact instantaneously, but intermediaries rely on their customer order flow in the 15 minutes after the announcement to discover the full impact. We show that this customer flow...
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This paper studies the effects of FOMC communication on U.S. financial markets’ returns and volatility using a GARCH model over the period from 1998 to 2006. We build a new data set that includes information on all FOMC speeches, post-meeting statements, monetary policy reports and...
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