Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the...

In this paper, the Box-Jenkins approach has been used to build the appropriate Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model to understand the short-term economic impact of coronavirus on India and Indonesia’s economies. The quarterly data for forecasting India and Indonesia's GDP was...

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show...