We use the latest available empirical evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the EU economy to predict its effect on firm entry, and in particular on high-growth startups, and on the related short- and long-run impact on employment growth. We find that the COVID-19 shock is expected to...

We take the neoclassical perspective and apply the business cycle accounting method as proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007, Econometrica) for the Great Recession and the associated stimulus program in Germany 2008-2009. We include wedges to the variables government consumption,...

This paper studies the theoretical effects of changes in disaster risk on macroeconomic variables in five Latin American economies. It compares country-specific variants of the New Keynesian model with disaster risk developed by Isoré and Szczerbowicz (2017). Countries with higher price...

We take the neoclassical perspective and apply the business cycle accounting method as proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007, Econometrica) for the Great Recession and the associated stimulus program in Germany 2008-2009. We include wedges to the variables government consumption,...

The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks on the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have...

This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations inEurope. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (thegranular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper alsoassesses the strength of spillovers...

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate...

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or doesover-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscalproblems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countrieswhere past growth...

Bleibende ökonomische Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie werden an der Entwicklung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsfaktoren - dem Arbeitseinsatz, Sach- und Humankapital sowie dem Bestand an technischem Wissen - sichtbar werden. Verhaltensänderungen, wie etwa eine höhere Technikakzeptanz,...

Bleibende ökonomische Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie werden an der Entwicklung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsfaktoren - dem Arbeitseinsatz, Sach- und Humankapital sowie dem Bestand an technischem Wissen - sichtbar werden. Verhaltensänderungen, wie etwa eine höhere Technikakzeptanz,...