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Commodity price shocks and the business cycle : structural evidence for the US
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011 - This version: March 28, 2011
particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
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Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the US : results from threshold vector autoregressions
Mandler, Martin - 2010
model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low … inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent. Generalized impulse response functions highlight important across …-regime differences in the responses of the economy to monetary policy and inflation shocks. Simulating both regimes with individual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950614
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Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S.
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011
particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390656
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Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
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Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy
Gehrke, Britta; Hochmuth, Brigitte - 2018
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845664
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Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy
Gehrke, Britta; Hochmuth, Brigitte - 2017
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty in order to prevent layoffs and stabilize employment. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession, for example. This paper shows that the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011718992
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Falling Long-term Inflation Expectations?
Neri, Stefano - 2022
Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a … possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long …-term inflation expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation between 2014 and 2016, and in 2019. Counterfactual simulations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307766
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A new approach to identifying the real effects of uncertainty shocks
Shin, Minchul; Zhong, Molin - 2016 - This version: April 25, 2016
This paper proposes a multivariate stochastic volatility-in-vector autoregression model called the conditional autoregressive inverse Wishart-in-VAR (CAIW-in-VAR) model as a framework for studying the real effects of uncertainty shocks. We make three contributions to the literature. First, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500382
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The evolving transmission of uncertainty shocks in the United Kingdom
Mumtaz, Haroon - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-18
declined over time. The timing of the change coincides with the introduction of inflation targeting in the U.K. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505897
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The state level impact of uncertainty shocks
Mumtaz, Haroon; Sunder-Plassmann, Laura; … - 2016
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income growth in US states. The results suggest that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude and the persistence of the response to uncertainty shocks across states....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758