As the global crisis hit developing Asia, several countries instituted fiscal stimulus measures to create domestic demand. With the region returning to normal times, in this paper we draw lessons using historical data from 10 developing Asian countries to examine if countercyclical fiscal policy...

We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Unlike most of the previous literature this approach does not require that the contemporaneous reaction of some variables to fiscal policy shocks be set to zero or need additional...

As the global crisis hit developing Asia, several countries instituted fiscal stimulus measures to create domestic demand. With the region returning to normal times, in this paper we draw lessons using historical data from 10 developing Asian countries to examine if countercyclical fiscal policy...

This paper estimates a state-dependent model where the state of the economy is measured by the unemployment rate, economic growth, and uncertainty. We find larger tax multipliers in low unemployment states and during expansions. However, tax multipliers are smaller when uncertainty is low....

Official estimates of the budgetary effects of proposed federal legislation generally exclude behavioral responses that would have macroeconomic effects. In my view, including such effects — an approach known as “dynamic scoring” — in estimates for certain proposals would improve the...

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to...

We investigate the effects of UK monetary policy from 1974-2001 using a structural vector autoregression with quarterly data. We adapt Uhlig's (2001) sign restriction identification methodology and show that shocks which can reasonably be described as monetary policy shocks have played a very...

We investigate the effects of fiscal policy surprises for US data, using vector autoregressions. We overcome the difficulties that changes in fiscal policy may manifest themselves in variables other than fiscal variables first and that fiscal variables may respond "automatically" to business...

Although economic growth continued to be lukewarm in 2021, tax revenue increased significantly, even exceeding the pre-crisis level despite economic policy measures associated with revenue losses. During the 2008-2011 global financial crisis, tax revenue followed a different path: Its recovery...

In this article, the author reviews the continuing controversy over the Reagan tax cut. Republicans often assert that it was so expansionary that there was no revenue loss, something the Reagan administration itself never claimed. The truth is that the tax cut lost a lot of revenue, but helped...