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Structural VAR models require two ingredients: (i) Informational sufficiency, and (ii) a valid identification strategy. These conditions are unlikely to be met by small-scale recursively identified VAR models. I propose a Bayesian Proxy Factor-Augmented VAR (BP-FAVAR) to combine a large...
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of Macedonia (NBRM) for medium term macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. The MAKPAM is a medium scale, New … important block of the macroeconomic forecasting system of the NBRM. The model is therefore an important analytic tool for …
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This case study compares the importance of prevailing market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining the evolution of Eurozone (EZ) sovereign spreads during the first half of 2020. Focusing on daily Eurozone CDS spreads, we adopt a multi-stage econometric...
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