We integrate systemic financial instability in an empirical macroeconomic model for the euro area. We find that at times of widespread financial instability the macroeconomy functions fundamentally differently from tranquil times. We employ a richly specified Markov-Switching...

Unprecedented monetary policy accommodation in advanced economies and a large, coordinated fiscal stimulus by G20 countries helped to support a solid rebound in global output right after the 2009 Global Recession. However, global growth subsequently slowed to a sluggish pace by pre-recession...

This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented "Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing", "Local Linear" and "Iteratively Reweighted Least...

Unprecedented monetary policy accommodation in advanced economies and a large, coordinated fiscal stimulus by G20 countries helped to support a solid rebound in global output right after the 2009 Global Recession. However, global growth subsequently slowed to a sluggish pace by pre-recession...

We investigate the effects of financial development on recession while controlling for potential recession factors using data of about 129 countries covering the 1990-2010 period. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study examining this relationship using a plural and innovative...

This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indexes. Several existing index designs can be represented as special cases. We introduce a daily variant of the ECB’s CISS for the euro area and the US. The CISS aggregates a representative set of stress...

This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks'reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse...