' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs …

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining … theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in … depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is -0.8. Historically, NAFTA …

of the bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers put in place by the previous administration. Moreover, incentives to …. Continuing bilateral trade tensions between the world's largest economic powerhouse scan be expected to have significant impacts … on the rest of the world. While it is intuitive to conclude that bilateral trade restrictions create new opportunities …

and labor market power. Reducing tariffs on intermediate inputs has increased a firm's price-cost markup but decreased the … trade shocks on product and labor market power, we exploit China's reductions in input and output tariffs upon its accession … to the World Trade Organization. We find that trade liberalization has not switched firms away from exercising product …

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining … theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism … persistently, in aggregate and across sectors and space. The general equilibrium import elasticity is -0.8. Historically, NAFTA …