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Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis
Ericsson, Neil R.; Hendry, David F.; Mizon, Grayham E. - 2003
This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219439
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The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
Chang, Yoosoon; Gómez-Rodríguez, Fabio; Hong, Gee Hee - 2022
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that … the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which … influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079902
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Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage
Laudati, Dario; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021
daily newspaper coverage. It finds sanctions to have significant effects on exchange rates, inflation, and output growth …, with the Iranian rial over-reacting to sanctions, followed up with a rise in inflation and a fall in output. In absence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599150
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Monetary discipline and macroeconomic performance : the case of Indonesia
Ramayandi, Arief; Rosario, Aleli - 2010
situation helps to explain the surge in the country's inflation and its very high growth in financial condition from late 2007 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008826302
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Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms
Hale, Galina; Leer, John C.; Nechio, Fernanda - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Fiscal support measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic varied in their targeted beneficiaries. Relying on variability across 10 large economies, we study differences in the inflationary effects of fiscal support measures targeting consumers or businesses. Because conventional measures of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537798
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Thinking beyond the pandemic : monetary policy challenges in the medium- to long-term
Dąbrowski, Marek - 2021
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012592174
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The Success of Currency Reforms to End Great Inflations: An Empirical Analysis of 34 High Inflations
Bernholz, Peter; Kugler, Peter - 2007
The estimation of an ordered probit model for currency reforms trying to end 31 hyperinflations and three big inflations of the 20th century shows that the introduction of an independent central bank and the adoption of a credibly fixed exchange rate are crucial for the success of a currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390618
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The role of fiscal policy in Britain's great inflation
Fan, Jingwen; Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong - 2014
We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010413736
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The success of currency reforms to end great inflations : an empirical analysis of 34 high inflations
Bernholz, Peter (contributor); Kugler, Peter (contributor) - 2007
The estimation of an ordered probit model for currency reforms trying to end 31 hyperinflations and three big inflations of the 20th century shows that the introduction of an independent central bank and the adoption of a credibly fixed exchange rate are crucial for the success of a currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003666987
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Supply-Side Policies in the Depression : Evidence from France
Cohen-Setton, Jeremie - 2017
The effects of supply-side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961522