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spur a declining economic growth. Incidentally, this work questions the issue of measuring economic regularities through … the empirical literature on the finance-growth nexus. It highlights an array of statistical issues casting serious doubts … expansion and economic growth is non-linear. However, our estimates document an overall negative effect of expanding credit to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597312
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP … levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390656
Inspired by Dornbusch's model of exchange rate overshooting we develop a theory of stock market behaviour. The idea is that stock market prices overshoot and undershoot their long-run equilibrium values which are determined by the development in the real economy. The overshooting is fuelled...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435247
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This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be...
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