There is an ongoing debate about austerity and stimulus in the Euro zone. Moreover, given the fiscal and financial problems in the region, a default has appeared likely at times. In this context, this paper develops a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default with fiscal policy,...

Our aim is to explore the role of financial aid in a default episode. To that end, we develop a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default featuring fiscal policy, endogenous financial aid and risk-averse foreign lenders. After calibrating the model, we feed output shocks into...

We develop a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default featuring fiscal policy, endogenous financial aid and risk-averse foreign lenders, in order to explore the role of financial aid in a default episode. After calibrating the model, we feed output shocks into the model to show...

We shed light on the function, properties and optimal size of austerity using the standard sovereign model augmented to include incomplete information about credit risk. Austerity is defined as the shortfall of consumption from the level desired by a country and supported by its repayment...

We shed light on the function, properties and optimal size of austerity using the standard sovereign debt model augmented to include incomplete information about credit risk. Austerity is defined as the shortfall of consumption from the level desired by a country and supported by its repayment...

This paper examines the costs of recent sovereign defaults using synthetic control methods, a novel econometric technique based on comparative case studies. Evidence on the effects of debt crises is thus presented on a case-by-case basis, uncovering large variations in country-specific...

European authorities and scholars published proposals on which indicators of macroeconomic imbalances might be used to uncover risks for the sustainability of public debt in the European Union. We test the ability of four proposed sets of indicators to send early-warnings of debt crises using a...