This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series...

The global financial crisis, after brewing for a while, actually started to demonstrate its consequences and encroachments in the middle of 2007 and into 2008. During this period the world stock markets have fallen, large financial institutions have been collapsed. From 2008 to 2010 it reflected...

We present a hybrid Heston model with a local stochastic volatility to describe government bond yield dynamics. The model is analytically tractable and, therefore, can be efficiently estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Twofold is the model contribution. First, it captures changes in...

This research addresses important empirical questions regarding the relationship between natural gas exports and Egyptian economic growth by extending the Dirtsakis's model (Dritsakis, 2004, p. 1834) with the addition of the labor force into the model and further by addressing the issue in a...

We develop a similarity-based structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model using the similar clusters of data relevant for the prevailing initial macroeconomic conditions of interest. Our computationally attractive simple approach enables us to uncover time-varying effects of structural...

In this paper, we investigate the effect of the U.S.--China trade war on stock markets from a financial contagion perspective, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, to account for risk contagion between the U.S. and China stock markets, we develop a novel jump-diffusion process....

Further vocational training for the unemployed aims at enhancing their job prospects. This paper analyses the effectiveness of such subsidized training programmes for means-tested unemployment benefit recipients in Germany. The empirical findings are based on rich administrative data of the...

Based on a database of 326 merger cases scrutinized by the European Commission between 1990 and 2007, we evaluate the economic impact of the change in European merger legislation in 2004. We ?rst propose a general framework to assess merger policy effectiveness, which is based on standard...

The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell-dependent unemployment benefits displays a time-varying exit rate. Building on Semi-Markov processes, we translate these exit rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation...