story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

general enough to apply to impulse responses estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that our …

historical simulation and historical simulation methods is evaluated using regulatory back tests, unconditional and conditional …

estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that the use of our criteria significantly affects …

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has increased the importance of properly forecasting macro-financial developments in …

money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …