). The variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators … find that the macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time … ; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …

-Hastings algorithm through Bayesian inference. The results of the impulse response functions suggest a slight decrease in inflation and …

and inflation rates. Building on the lessons from recent advances in time-series econometrics, we suggest instead that one …