Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do...

There is much debate about the usefulness of the neoclassical growth model for assessing the macro-economic impact of fiscal shocks. We test the theory using data from World War II, which is by far the largest fiscal shock in the history of the United States. We take observed changes in fiscal...

In this paper, we estimate the impact of increasing costs on foreign producers following a withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (popularly known as Brexit). Our predictions are based on simulations of a multicountry neoclassical growth model that includes multinational firms...

Without any intervention, the novel coronavirus would cost the U.S. economy over $9 trillion. A suppression policy aims to reduce the number of new cases through strict social distancing measures by closing schools and non-essential businesses. Less restrictive, a mitigation policy aims to...

Though COVID vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical...

Though COVID vaccines have become available in United States in December 2020, the speed of vaccinations remains slow. In the meantime, the virus continues to claim thousands of lives every day. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical...