Die Wahrnehmung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung wird auch in Deutschland momentan von den Ereignissen an den Finanzmärkten überlagert. Die Wertberichtigungen und Liquiditätsengpässe im Bankensektor drohen inzwischen ein Ausmaß anzunehmen, das zu einer ernstzunehmenden Verknappung der...

Das DIW Berlin rechnet zum Jahresende mit einer Stabilisierung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Voraussetzung für eine konjunkturelle Stabilisierung ist jedoch eine Rückkehr des Vertrauens in die Finanzmärkte: Hierfür sind strukturelle Reformen und eine wirksame Regulierung des...

During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....

This study evaluates anti-contagion and economic policies by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. First, the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the...

This paper presents an update on the business cycle and growth rate cycle chronology of the Indian economy by identifying the peaks and troughs in the quarterly released real GDP time series. The results reveal that the Indian economy witnessed three classical contractions and nine growth rate...

This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

An important property of hysteresis is that temporary events of sufficient magnitude can have permanent effects. The COVID-19 recession in the US was both temporary and extremely deep. This invites the hypothesis that the recession had permanent effects on the US economy as a result of...