The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...

This paper examines the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and its implications for central banks' price stability mandate. Carbon policy shocks are identified using high-frequency identification and combined with French firm-level survey data. A change in carbon price...

Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the...

The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...

This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...

This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains....

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...

This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that, in both cases, the degree of uncertainty varies over...

Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long-term inflation expectations exerted a downward...