We conduct a survey of 2,500 Chinese households to study their formation of gas price expectations following the 2022 Ukraine war. Respondents provided their priors about recent and future gas price inflation. Participants were randomly exposed to information about recent gas price inflation,...

Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) have been implemented in most U.S. states to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This paper quantifies the short-run impact of these containment policies on the supply of and demand for child care. The child care market may be particularly vulnerable to a SAHO-type...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. We use loan-level...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. We use loan-level...

This paper takes an early look at the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and novel small business support program that was part of the initial policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We use new data on the distribution of the first round of PPP loans and high-frequency micro-level...

In this brief, we provide a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the impact of current mitigation measures on the 2020 GDP growth rate. That impact varies by industry, and we are able to identify this variation by adopting a simple but plausible assumption: industries will remain in business in...

This paper provides an early estimate of the economic effects of the national quarantine policy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Using a measure of digital intensity from Gallipoli and Makridis (2018), we exploit counties' exposure to industries that vary in their...

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed peoples’ lives in unexpected ways, especially how they allocate their time between work and other activities. Demand for online learning has surged during a period of mass layoffs and transition to remote work and schooling. Can this uptake in online learning...

Using new high-frequency data that covers a representative sample of small business owners, we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting state policies on the retail, hospitality, food, and accommodation sectors. First, we find that business closure policies are...

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected state budgets? Using a quarterly panel of states between 1994 and 2019, we estimate how changes in employment affect tax revenues. We find that a one percentage point (pp) rise in employment is associated with a 1.56pp rise in total tax revenue, which is...