Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

There is a general acceptance of the fact that a significant direct relationship between financial markets and macroeconomic variables exists, especially by considering the assertion that developed financial markets correspond to high GDP levels. This paper provides an investigation of the...

In this research, we examined whether appreciation and depreciation in oil price, interest rate, exchange rate, industrial production, and inflation have the same effects on the stock market returns by using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (nonlinear ARDL). All nine economic sectors and...

DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study,...

This study explores the dynamic linkage of exogenous oil shock and economic activity in Nigeria in Nigeria via a sign- identified Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). Specifically, the study utilizes quarterly time series data where the information set uses real gross domestic product,...

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the ECB Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downwards the correlation between yields and the...