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We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample's...
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functional forms can overcome different sources of bias. The analysis is particularly relevant to the estimation of spillovers …
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We present evidence that multi-market banks transmitted economic shocks relating to the COVID-19 crisis among the geographic areas where the banks operate. We find that banks transmission effects were about half as economically significant as the direct effect of the shocks. We also find that...
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We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a GARCH framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on GDP, inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values....
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In this paper, we study the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates...
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While the relationship between oil prices and stock markets is of great interest to economists, previous studies do not differentiate oil-exporting countries from oil-importing countries when they investigate the effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns. In this paper, we address this...
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leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term bond yields if policy uncertainty is high at the time of the shock … are robust to the measurement of monetary policy uncertainty and the definition of the monetary policy shock. We argue … policy uncertainty leads to opposite effects with term premia increasing even more after a policy shock. …
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