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Proportional election systems are widespread across countries and often lead to coalition governments. This creates …
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according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9 …
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Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the … indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high …
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In 2001, the state parliament of the German federal state of Hesse abolished a 5 percent legal electoral threshold for local elections. This reform had a stronger effect on municipalities with larger councils because implicit electoral thresholds decrease with council size. Exploiting...
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We study the effect of the COVID-19 economic lockdown on electoral outcomes using data on municipal elections in Italy. We implement a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the variation across municipalities in the share of inactive workers due to the economic lockdown introduced by...
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What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election …
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A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the … effect, our estimates imply Trump would been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only …
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