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We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607100
per capita) mediated by product vulnerabilities. We account for the precise lag between when the COVID-19 shock hit the … a lower degree of complexity negatively affected exports as a result of this shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013167964
-ante study of the economic impacts of climate change, and an ex-post evaluation of the China productivity shock on the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322891
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306756
We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages. It includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination, (3) value added rather than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962330
networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by COVID-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral … shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined …. Moreover, we show that global production linkages have a clear role in magnifying the effect of the production shock. Finally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837986
In 2019 and the early months of 2020, global trade faced two major albeit very different shocks, namely the United States-China trade war and the cascading response of the countries around the world to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the former situation involved a pair of centrally-placed trading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828361
We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392193
We estimate the short-run trade effects of natural disasters using monthly trade data and data on the physical intensity of earthquakes and storms. We find large negative effects for heavily indebted poor, least developed or landlocked developing countries but only small effects for other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405375
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001338237