time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside … unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and …

existence of pre-trends leads to an upward bias for the estimation of the minimum wage effect. We do not find any significant …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …