We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After...

We shed new light on the effects of monetary policy shocks in the US. Gertler and Karadi (2015) suggest that movements in credit costs may result in substantial impact of monetary policy shocks on economic activity. Using the proxy SVAR framework, we show that once the Volcker disinflation...

In this paper, we revisit the debate on the effects of monetary policy shocks in the U.S. economy. In a recent study, Gertler and Karadi (2015) suggest that movements in credit costs help to capture the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the aggregate economy through the credit...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a monetary transmission...

Progress on the question of whether policymakers should respond directly to financial variables requires a realistic economic model that captures the links between asset prices, credit expansion, and real economic activity. Standard DSGE models with fully-rational expectations have difficulty...

In the U.S., over 1873-2014, an increase in bank credit is associated with a lower risk of a financial crisis in the near future. Bank credit expansion predicts lower excess returns and volatility for the aggregate stock market, and this predictive relation varies in the cross-section and is...

This study evaluates anti-contagion and economic policies by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. First, the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the...

COSMO is a new structural econometric model of the Irish economy, with a theoretically founded structure and specification. It is designed to be used for medium-term economic projections and policy analysis. This paper outlines the key mechanisms in the model and explores the behaviour of the...