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I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
This paper characterizes time variation in the link between macroeconomic risk and variation in the yield curve. Based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314107
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244831
We show that decomposing macroeconomic risks across horizon is key to uncover a tight link between risk premia and the … that long-term growth and volatility capture largely common risk. We then propose a single, long-term, macroeconomic risk … factor which drives out standard long-run risk measures and performs similar to the Fama-French three-factor model in cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972571
fluctuations in uncertainty with persistence ranging from 32 to 128 months carry a negative price of risk of about -2% annually …. The price of risk for fluctuations with persistence outside of this range and for the raw series of aggregate uncertainty … is insignificant. Also, equity exposures are negative and hence the corresponding risk premia are positive. I quantify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014133052
Macro news have large impact on bond yields in high-frequency data. We aggregate the impact of macro news within each month, which we use in a no-arbitrage term structure models. We find that macro news explain 50 percent in the term premium of the 10-year bond at the monthly frequency and 40...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860146
This paper studies the non-linear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks. We show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy. A policy tightening leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661992
other risk factors cannot explain the magnitude of the regulatory spread. We draw broader lessons on how investors impound …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972335
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012109285
Background: In making investment decisions, asset risk and return are two crucial criteria on which investors base … their decision. Objectives: This paper provides risk and return analysis and compares different traditional and alternative … estate, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, renewable energy sources, gold, and oil. Methods/Approach: The risk measures of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013542202