Given the historical persistence of economic activity, the reduction of GDP due to confinement measures is likely to drag on over several quarters. The total GDP shortfall could be as much as twice that implied by the direct initial effects of confinement. This persistence reflects in part two...

The economic downturn prompted by the Covid pandemic was historically deep and highly divergent at a sectoral level. We project corporate credit losses for the G7 economies, China and Australia until 2022 and find that they could be substantial for the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Yet,...